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| XAUUSD BEARISH CHANNEL DRAWN BY ISHAAN- Source: TradingView |
The focus keyword XAUUSD Bearish Channel Holds remains the dominant theme after gold failed to break above descending channel resistance. The daily chart shows sellers defending every rally while market structure continues printing lower highs. Unless buyers can force a sustained breakout, the path of least resistance still points lower. From what I can see on the chart, gold looks vulnerable to another liquidity sweep before the next major move develops.
Why The Current Structure Still Favors Sellers
The most important feature on this chart is the well-defined bearish channel. Price has respected both boundaries multiple times, making the structure difficult to ignore.
I noticed something on the daily chart this morning. Every recovery attempt has stalled before creating a meaningful higher high. That tells me sellers are still active near resistance.
The recent bounce may look bullish at first glance, but the broader structure remains unchanged. Lower highs and lower lows continue to dominate the trend.
Traders following previous bearish channel analysis will recognize a very similar pattern developing again.
XAUUSD Bearish Channel Holds While Resistance Remains Untouched
Bias: Bearish
The upper boundary of the channel continues acting as dynamic resistance. Until that area breaks, every rally should be treated with caution.
I also noticed that the latest push higher lacked the aggressive momentum normally seen before a genuine breakout. Instead, price appears to be drifting upward into resistance.
This is where retail traders often get trapped. A small breakout attempt can trigger FOMO buying, only for smart money to reverse the move and harvest liquidity above recent highs.
The behavior resembles several earlier downtrend support reactions that eventually resulted in another bearish expansion.
Liquidity Sweep Risk Remains Elevated
One of the strongest signals visible on the chart is the possibility of a liquidity sweep near channel resistance.
Markets rarely move in a straight line. Large participants often need liquidity before pushing price in their intended direction. That frequently means allowing a temporary rally before initiating another selloff.
Honestly, this setup made me nervous at first because the rebound looked stronger than expected. But after reviewing the structure again, the bearish channel still appears intact.
The zone between 4250 and 4350 may attract buyers expecting a breakout. If those positions become trapped, downside acceleration could follow quickly.
Macro Environment Still Supports Defensive Positioning
Gold traders are also watching Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy signals. Higher yield expectations typically create headwinds for precious metals because non-yielding assets become less attractive compared with interest-bearing alternatives.
Recent market discussions highlighted by the Federal Reserve policy outlook continue to influence institutional positioning and risk sentiment.
During the New York session, these macro drivers often amplify technical setups. When bearish structure aligns with macro pressure, downside moves can become more aggressive.
Key Levels Traders Should Monitor
Resistance Zone: 4250–4350
This area represents the upper portion of the channel and remains the most important zone for sellers.
Support Zone: 4000
A break below this level would strengthen bearish momentum and increase the probability of continuation lower.
Extended Bearish Objective: 3700–3800
This region aligns with the projected channel path shown on the chart and could become a magnet if downside pressure accelerates.
Risk To The Bearish View
No setup is guaranteed.
If buyers produce a strong daily close above channel resistance and maintain acceptance above the breakout area, the bearish thesis would weaken considerably.
When I saw the latest candle close, I immediately focused on the resistance boundary rather than the rebound itself. That remains the level that matters most.
XAUUSD Bearish Channel Holds remains my preferred outlook while price stays beneath descending resistance. A liquidity sweep into resistance followed by renewed selling pressure remains the scenario I am monitoring most closely. I'll update this view if the structure changes significantly before the next major New York session.