This setup started from yesterday’s open trade idea, and honestly, I did not close the position early even after the temporary bounce. The market still looks heavy below resistance. Unless buyers break this structure with strength, the pressure remains toward the downside support area.
The 4H Structure Still Favors Sellers.
The screenshot clearly shows a strong descending trendline controlling the market from the highs. Every major bounce has been rejected under that structure. This is not a random movement anymore. It is structured pressure.
The resistance zone marked near the upper red line became important because the price reacted there multiple times. When I saw the latest rejection forming under that zone, it confirmed that sellers were still defending the area aggressively.
A lot of retail traders probably expected a full reversal after the bounce. I saw many traders becoming bullish too early. But the structure never confirmed a bullish shift.
That is where many traders get trapped.
The market often creates temporary bullish candles before continuing the original move. This is classic liquidity behavior during volatile sessions.
Read: Gold liquidity sweep strategy →
XAUUSD Resistance Zone Remains Critical
The resistance zone on the chart is still the key area controlling short-term direction. Price reacted there while staying below the trendline. That matters a lot.
As long as XAUUSD remains below 4605 resistance, the downside pressure remains valid.
I noticed something important during the latest candles. Buyers pushed the price upward, but momentum looked weak. The candles lacked aggressive continuation.
That usually tells me institutions are not fully supporting the upside yet.
Instead, it feels more like a corrective retracement inside a bearish structure.
The Bollinger Bands on the chart also show price failing to properly reclaim the middle expansion zone. That rejection adds more pressure on the bearish case.
Read Our: XAUUSD risk management →
Why The Support Target Still Looks Active
The lower green support target marked on the chart remains unfinished because the price has not fully swept liquidity from that zone yet.
Markets usually seek liquidity before reversing properly.
Right now, there is still a visible attraction toward the downside area near support. That is why the original trade target from yesterday remains open.
Honestly, holding through retracements is emotionally difficult sometimes. Especially when the market suddenly spikes against the position during the London session.
But the overall structure still looks intact.
The lower highs remain clean.
The trendline remains respected.
No confirmed bullish structure shift has appeared yet.
That is why patience matters here.
Also Learn: Smart money gold trading →
ISHAAN PRO TIPS
Many traders lose good setups because they panic during small retracements. In bearish structures like this, patience matters more than prediction. Always watch how the price reacts around trendlines and resistance zones instead of reacting emotionally to single candles. I personally focus on lower highs and failed bullish continuation before holding a sell position longer. During the New York session, liquidity spikes can create fake breakout moves before the real direction continues. Never move your stop loss emotionally after seeing temporary green candles. Let the structure confirm invalidation first. If resistance keeps holding, downside targets usually remain active longer than most traders expect in volatile gold conditions.
Retail Traders Are Still Vulnerable To A Trap
This type of structure usually creates dangerous retail traps.
A temporary bounce makes traders believe the market has already bottomed. Then, late buyers enter aggressively without waiting for confirmation.
After that, liquidity gets swept again.
I have seen this happen many times during the New York session open.
The emotional side of trading becomes dangerous here because traders confuse retracement with reversal.
There is a major difference between the two.
A reversal changes structure.
A retracement simply provides liquidity before continuation.
At the moment, this chart still behaves more like a retracement inside a broader bearish move.
Check: Federal Reserve Data →
DXY And Risk Sentiment Still Matter Here
Gold traders should also keep an eye on the US Dollar Index closely.
If DXY suddenly gains strength again during the NY session, it could increase downside pressure on XAUUSD.
Treasury yields also remain important because rising yields often reduce aggressive bullish momentum in gold.
Right now, broader risk sentiment still looks unstable across markets.
That uncertainty is helping volatility remain elevated.
I personally avoid becoming overconfident in this environment because sudden geopolitical headlines can change momentum fast.
Still, from a pure technical structure perspective, sellers currently maintain control below resistance.
What Would Invalidate This Bearish Idea?
Every analysis needs invalidation.
No setup is guaranteed.
This bearish structure becomes weaker only if the price starts closing strongly above the marked resistance zone and breaks the descending trendline with momentum.
Without that confirmation, the support target remains active.
Risk Warning: Gold can become extremely volatile around Fed comments, inflation data, and NY session liquidity spikes. Always manage risk carefully and avoid oversized positions.
Directional Bias For XAUUSD
Current Bias: Bearish while price remains below resistance and trendline structure.
The support target on the chart still looks reachable unless buyers completely reclaim the structure.
I will continue monitoring how the price behaves near the resistance rejection zone before the next NY open.
If structure changes, I will update the levels accordingly.
Final Thoughts Before The Next Session
This chart still tells a clean story.
Resistance held.
Trendline stayed respected.
Support target remains unfinished.
That is why I am still leaning bearish for now.
Check: CME FedWatch Tool →
The emotional part is ignoring temporary noise while focusing on the bigger structure. I know many traders become impatient during slow continuation moves, but sometimes the best trade management is simply holding the original plan while the structure remains valid.
XAUUSD still looks pressured below resistance while sellers continue targeting the lower support zone.
Check back again before the New York session because volatility could increase quickly around liquidity hours.
ISHAAN EXPERT TIPS
One thing I learned from trading gold for years is that patience usually beats prediction. Many traders think successful trading means catching every reversal perfectly, but most profitable trades actually come from respecting structure and avoiding emotional reactions. This current XAUUSD setup is a good example. The market bounced enough to create fear for sellers, but structure still never confirmed a bullish shift. I personally stayed focused on the trendline and resistance reaction instead of reacting emotionally to temporary green candles. During volatile sessions, especially around New York open liquidity, gold often creates sharp retracements to trap impatient traders before continuing the main direction. Another important thing is understanding how liquidity works near support and resistance. Institutions rarely move the market in a straight line. They create hesitation, fake breakouts, and emotional pressure first. That is why traders should focus more on confirmation instead of prediction. Right now, sellers still control the structure below resistance. But risk management always matters because one unexpected macro headline can change momentum fast in gold markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XAUUSD still bearish right now?
Yes. The current 4H structure still favors sellers while price remains below the marked resistance zone and descending trendline.
Why is the support target still active?
The market has not fully reached the liquidity area marked near the green support zone, which keeps downside pressure valid.
What could invalidate this sell setup?
A strong 4H breakout above resistance with bullish continuation could invalidate the current bearish structure.
Why do fake bullish moves happen in gold?
Gold often creates liquidity sweeps and retail traps before continuing the dominant trend during high volatility sessions.
Which session matters most for this setup?
The New York session is critical because liquidity spikes there often determine continuation or reversal momentum.