Gold price is trading around 4098, and my current bias remains bearish while the price stays below the 4150–4160 resistance zone. The latest bounce has not changed the overall market structure in my view. If sellers continue defending this area, gold could extend lower toward the 4060–4070 zone during next week's trading sessions. This is a technical opinion based on current price action, not a guaranteed prediction.
Why I Still Prefer the Bearish Side
I spent quite a bit of time reviewing the H4 chart before writing this update. One thing immediately caught my attention. Every bullish push has lost momentum before reaching a convincing breakout. That tells me buyers are still struggling to gain control.
I also noticed something similar during the New York session. Price attempted to recover, but the candles failed to close with strong bullish conviction. Instead, selling pressure returned almost immediately. This is often the kind of behavior I expect before another liquidity sweep to the downside.
If you missed my previous breakdown on bearish market structure, you can also read XAUUSD support break and sell pressure, where I discussed why failed recoveries usually deserve more attention than small bullish candles.
The 4150–4160 Resistance Is My Main Decision Zone
Many traders are focusing only on the current bounce. I think that's exactly where emotions start taking over.
The 4150–4160 area is important because previous selling pressure entered from nearly the same region. Until buyers reclaim that level with strong volume, I don't see enough evidence to change my directional bias.
I have seen this pattern many times before. Retail traders begin buying after a few green candles, while larger participants patiently wait for fresh liquidity before pushing price lower again. It doesn't happen every time, but this market structure looks very familiar.
Understanding these liquidity movements becomes much easier after studying XAUUSD liquidity sweep behavior, because institutional traders rarely chase price the same way retail traders do.
Market Psychology Still Favors Sellers
One thing that concerns me is how quickly traders become bullish after a small recovery.
Fear of missing out creates unnecessary long positions. Those positions often become liquidity when price reaches a strong resistance level.
I honestly felt the same temptation during today's move. The bounce looked attractive at first glance. After reviewing the structure again, however, I decided the bearish trend still had stronger evidence behind it.
This doesn't mean gold must fall immediately. Markets rarely move in a straight line. But as long as resistance remains respected, I believe patience favors sellers more than aggressive buyers.
For traders building a structured trading routine, my Gold trading checklist can help avoid emotional entries during volatile sessions.
What Could Send Gold Toward 4060–4070?
The answer is actually simple.
Price first needs to reject the 4150–4160 resistance zone. If that rejection happens with increasing selling pressure, the next downside objective could develop around 4060–4070. I am treating that area as a potential technical target rather than a certainty.
At the same time, traders should continue watching macro headlines because unexpected developments from central banks or geopolitical events can quickly change sentiment. Recent market coverage published by CNBC is also worth monitoring before the next New York session.
What Could Invalidate My Bearish Bias?
No technical analysis is perfect, and I never assume the market owes me anything.
If gold manages to close decisively above 4160 and successfully holds that level as support, my bearish outlook becomes invalid. That would indicate buyers are finally absorbing supply instead of simply reacting to short-term momentum.
I always remind myself that protecting capital is more important than proving an analysis right. Markets can change quickly, especially around major economic releases or unexpected geopolitical headlines.
- Current Price: 4098
- Major Resistance: 4150–4160
- Bearish Target: 4060–4070 (if rejection confirms)
- Invalidation: Strong close and acceptance above 4160
Final Thoughts
My current market bias remains bearish.
The overall structure still favors sellers while price trades below the 4150–4160 resistance zone. Although short-term recoveries are always possible, I believe they should be treated carefully until buyers produce a confirmed structural breakout.
Personally, I would rather wait for confirmation than chase a move driven by emotion. Over the years I've learned that patience usually pays better than FOMO.
If resistance continues rejecting price next week, the market could rotate toward the 4060–4070 support region. If the structure changes, I'll update this analysis before the next New York session.
