The AUD/USD bullish forecast remains constructive after the pair defended the psychological 0.7000 level and continued trading inside a well-defined ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7015, keeping buyers in control despite facing resistance near 0.7044. As long as price holds above channel support, I believe the short-term path still favors another push higher toward the next liquidity zone.
I noticed something interesting during today's London session. Many traders immediately started looking for short positions simply because price approached resistance. Personally, I wasn't interested in fading the trend. The structure still shows higher highs and higher lows, and until that changes, buying pullbacks makes more sense than chasing counter-trend sells.
Why AUD/USD Still Favors Buyers
The biggest reason behind my bullish bias is the market structure itself. Every recent pullback has been followed by another higher low, showing that buyers continue defending demand zones. Instead of seeing aggressive selling pressure, the market keeps absorbing supply before attempting another move higher.
On the chart, the ascending channel remains intact. The lower boundary has acted as dynamic support several times, while price continues respecting the upper trendline. This type of behavior usually suggests trend continuation rather than immediate reversal unless a clear breakdown occurs.
The 0.7000 level also carries psychological importance. Holding above this number keeps market sentiment positive in the short term. A sustained move above it often encourages momentum traders to remain on the long side.
If you're new to trading trend continuation setups, our guide on market trend structure explains why higher highs and higher lows are often more reliable than trying to predict reversals.
Key Levels Traders Should Watch
The first area attracting attention is 0.7044. This resistance has already rejected price before, making it the primary upside target for short-term buyers. If bulls manage to produce a strong 4-hour close above this level, momentum could quickly extend toward the next resistance around 0.7060.
On the downside, the first support sits around 0.7000. Below that, buyers should closely monitor the rising channel support near 0.6985. As long as these areas remain intact, the overall structure still supports buying opportunities instead of aggressive selling.
I also noticed that volume increased during the latest bullish impulse instead of the previous pullback. That's usually a healthy sign because stronger participation often supports continuation moves rather than exhaustion.
Economic releases can still create temporary volatility, so traders should keep an eye on the latest Australian and U.S. macro calendar through Forex Factory economic calendar before holding positions into major news events.
Market Psychology Behind This Move
One mistake I see repeatedly is traders selling simply because price reaches resistance. Markets don't reverse just because a horizontal line exists on the chart. Institutions frequently push price toward obvious resistance levels to trigger breakout traders while collecting liquidity from early sellers. That doesn't guarantee a breakout, but it does explain why fading a strong trend too early often becomes an expensive lesson.
Right now, the overall price behavior still suggests buyers have the advantage. Until bears produce a confirmed structure break below the recent higher low, I prefer respecting the existing bullish trend instead of fighting it.
Trade Plan and Short-Term Outlook
My short-term bias remains bullish, but I also understand that no trend moves in a straight line. Pullbacks are healthy, and in many cases they create better buying opportunities instead of signaling a complete reversal.
For now, I am watching three important price zones:
- Support: 0.7000
- Secondary Support: 0.6985
- Invalidation Zone: Below 0.6960
As long as AUD/USD continues holding above these support levels, buyers still have room to challenge 0.7044. A successful breakout above resistance could expose the next upside objective around 0.7060, although traders should wait for confirmation rather than buying into an extended candle.
Bias: Bullish
Current Price: Around 0.7015
Target 1: 0.7044
Target 2: 0.7060 (if resistance breaks)
Invalidation: A sustained move below 0.6960 would weaken the current bullish structure.
Another factor supporting the Australian Dollar is that risk sentiment has remained relatively stable. Whenever investors become comfortable holding risk assets, currencies like AUD often receive additional support against the U.S. Dollar. That relationship is not perfect every day, but it frequently adds momentum when technical trends are already pointing higher.
At the same time, traders should avoid emotional entries. FOMO buying after a large bullish candle usually creates poor risk-to-reward trades. I would rather wait for a healthy retracement toward support than chase price after a sharp rally.
If you want to improve trade management during trending markets, our Ultimate Risk Management Guide explains how position sizing and stop-loss placement can protect your account even when a setup fails.
Final Thoughts
My short-term bias remains bullish. The overall market structure continues to favor buyers while AUD/USD trades above the 0.7000 psychological support and inside the rising channel visible on the 4-hour chart.
That said, traders should remain flexible. A clean rejection from 0.7044 could trigger temporary profit-taking before the next directional move develops. On the other hand, a confirmed breakout above resistance would strengthen the bullish case and increase the probability of a continuation toward 0.7060.
I will continue watching price action closely before the next New York session. If buyers maintain control and higher lows remain intact, the current bullish trend deserves respect rather than fighting it with early short positions.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Is AUD/USD still bullish?
Yes. The current higher-high and higher-low structure keeps the short-term bullish outlook valid while price remains above 0.7000.
2. What is the next resistance level?
The nearest major resistance is around 0.7044. A confirmed breakout could expose 0.7060.
3. What would invalidate this bullish setup?
A sustained breakdown below 0.6960 would weaken the bullish structure and increase downside risk.
4. Should traders buy after a breakout?
Waiting for confirmation or a healthy pullback generally provides better risk management than chasing an extended breakout candle.
