.png)
Forex Major Pairs are entering the final session of September with the U.S. dollar still holding a strong position across the market. EURUSD has fallen toward 1.1312, GBPUSD is near a three-month low around 1.3237, AUDUSD has slipped below 0.70, and NZDUSD remains close to its lowest level since November. At the same time, USDCHF is trading near a multi-month high while USDJPY remains elevated despite recent yen strength. My current view is defensive on most USD majors while price remains below their key resistance zones.
The broader driver is the combination of stronger U.S. rate expectations, elevated Treasury yields, and renewed demand for the dollar. The latest market data showed the DXY near 101.59, close to its June high, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.28%. That yield backdrop continues to make the dollar attractive relative to several major currencies. At the same time, upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data could quickly change the rate narrative. Reuters reported that core PCE and the Friday jobs report are the key events traders are watching for clues about the next Federal Reserve decision.
EURUSD: 1.13 Is the First Major Battle
EURUSD remains one of the clearest expressions of current dollar strength. Price recently touched 1.1312, its lowest level since May 2025, before recovering slightly. The pair is still trading below the psychological 1.14 region, keeping the short-term structure vulnerable. I am watching whether buyers can reclaim 1.1370–1.1400 before considering any meaningful recovery.
EURUSD Support
1.1310–1.1315
1.1280
1.1250
EURUSD Resistance
1.1370–1.1375
1.1400–1.1405
1.1435
Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1375; a sustained break below 1.1310 would expose lower support.
For traders who follow dollar-driven setups, my earlier DXY Trading Guide remains useful for understanding how dollar structure can influence EURUSD and other major pairs. The key psychology here is simple: do not chase a breakdown after an extended move. A retest can provide cleaner information than an emotional entry.
GBPUSD: Sellers Still Control the Lower Range
GBPUSD is trading around 1.3227–1.3237 after touching a three-month low. The pound is facing pressure from broad dollar strength and elevated U.S. yields. For me, the important question is whether the pair can reclaim 1.3260–1.3290. Until that happens, rallies may continue to face selling interest.
GBPUSD Support
1.3200–1.3205
1.3170
1.3145
GBPUSD Resistance
1.3260–1.3265
1.3290
1.3320
Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.3260–1.3290.
My own observation is that GBPUSD is showing weaker rebound attempts than buyers would normally want to see after a major decline. That does not guarantee another selloff, but it keeps the lower levels relevant. Traders should also remember that sterling can react sharply when broader risk sentiment or rate expectations change.
USDJPY: Yen Strength Meets a High-Risk Zone
USDJPY remains one of the most complicated major pairs because dollar strength is competing with official concern over yen weakness. The pair is around 157.25, while recent price action briefly reached the 156.38 area. September has seen the dollar lose ground against the yen even though USDJPY remains historically elevated.
USDJPY Support
156.90–157.00
156.40
155.90–156.00
USDJPY Resistance
157.65–157.70
158.05–158.10
158.40–158.45
Technical Bias: Range-bound to cautiously bearish below 157.70; intervention headlines can create sudden volatility.
The important psychology is not assuming that a high price must continue higher. Japanese authorities have already demonstrated sensitivity to excessive yen weakness, while recent rate expectations have also supported the yen. I would rather wait for a confirmed break than predict the next intervention-driven candle.
USDCHF: Dollar Bulls Test a Major Ceiling
USDCHF is trading near 0.8331 after reaching around 0.8358, its highest level in roughly 17 months. The Swiss franc has weakened as investors have searched for higher-yielding alternatives, making USDCHF an important dollar-strength chart to monitor.
USDCHF Support
0.8315–0.8320
0.8295
0.8270
USDCHF Resistance
0.8360–0.8365
0.8380–0.8385
0.8405
Technical Bias: Bullish above 0.8315, but rejection near 0.8360–0.8380 could trigger a pullback.
I am watching 0.8360 as a key reaction zone rather than treating it as an automatic breakout level. If buyers establish acceptance above resistance, the structure can remain constructive. If price repeatedly rejects the area, short-term mean reversion becomes more relevant.
AUDUSD: 0.70 Remains the Psychological Line
AUDUSD has fallen below 0.70 after reaching approximately 0.6959. Softer Australian inflation data added pressure to the currency while broad dollar strength created another headwind. The pair is now sitting close to an important technical decision area.
AUDUSD Support
0.6955–0.6960
0.6930
0.6900
AUDUSD Resistance
0.7000–0.7020
0.7050–0.7060
0.7080
Technical Bias: Bearish below 0.7000–0.7020.
The key issue is whether 0.70 becomes resistance after previously acting as psychological support. If sellers defend the zone, downside continuation remains possible. If price reclaims 0.7020 and holds above it, the bearish structure would need to be reassessed.
NZDUSD: Extreme Weakness Needs Confirmation
NZDUSD is trading around 0.5646 after reaching its lowest level since November. This is one of the most stretched charts among the major pairs, which means downside momentum is clear but also means traders need to respect the possibility of a sharp counter-trend bounce.
NZDUSD Support
0.5620–0.5625
0.5595–0.5600
0.5565
NZDUSD Resistance
0.5670
0.5700
0.5720–0.5725
Technical Bias: Bearish below 0.5670–0.5700, but avoid chasing extended candles.
My focus here is confirmation rather than prediction. If price repeatedly fails below 0.5670, sellers retain control. A clean recovery above 0.5700 would weaken the immediate bearish structure. This is exactly where disciplined position sizing matters because volatility can expand quickly around U.S. data.
USDCAD: Oil and Dollar Strength Pull in Opposite Directions
USDCAD is trading around 1.4183. Unlike several other major pairs, the Canadian dollar also has a strong relationship with crude oil, so the pair can react to both dollar yields and energy-market movements. The current technical structure remains elevated but is approaching an important resistance band.
USDCAD Support
1.4170–1.4175
1.4145
1.4100–1.4105
USDCAD Resistance
1.4200–1.4205
1.4220
1.4240
Technical Bias: Bullish above 1.4170, but resistance near 1.4200–1.4220 must break for further upside confirmation.
Traders should avoid looking at USDCAD through the dollar lens alone. Oil price direction can change CAD strength quickly. A stronger dollar combined with weaker oil would support upside pressure, while rising crude could provide the Canadian dollar with some relief.
Today’s Forex Macro Map
The common thread across these major pairs is the dollar, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve expectations. The Fed recently raised its policy rate to the 3.75%–4.00% range, while New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency on another hike. That pushed market expectations away from an immediate October move, although inflation and employment data remain critical.
According to Reuters, traders are watching core PCE inflation and Friday's employment report for evidence about the future rate path. The latest JOLTS report showed job openings falling to 7.079 million in August, while layoffs remained relatively low. This creates a mixed backdrop: labor demand has softened somewhat, but the labor market has not collapsed.
For the latest macro developments, readers can review the Reuters Forex and Dollar Market Update. I am keeping the external source inline because macro confirmation matters when several major pairs are moving in the same dollar-driven direction.
My Trading Plan for the Major Pairs
My current approach is to respect the existing dollar trend but avoid chasing extended candles. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD all have nearby support levels that can produce short-term reactions. USDCHF remains strong, while USDJPY needs extra caution because yen policy risk can create sudden reversals.
I would also keep position size smaller around core PCE, employment data and major Fed repricing. A technical setup can look perfect and still fail when macro data changes the interest-rate narrative. For traders who want more structured Forex context, the Forex Major Brief and Yen Analysis provides another useful reference.
For broader pair context, the Forex Major Pairs Dollar Weakness Analysis and USDJPY Technical Setup can also help compare today's structure with previous dollar and yen conditions.
My current overall bias is dollar-positive but tactically cautious. The major pairs are not moving independently; they are responding to the same macro forces. That means a reversal in DXY or Treasury yields could quickly appear across EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCHF. I would rather wait for price to confirm the level than force a trade simply because the broader trend looks obvious.
Financial Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading or legal advice. Forex trading involves substantial risk, particularly when leverage is used. Market prices can move rapidly because of economic data, central-bank decisions, geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions and unexpected events. Support, resistance and directional bias are technical observations, not guaranteed outcomes. Always consider your own financial situation, risk tolerance and trading experience before making any trading decision.
FAQ
1. What is the main Forex theme today?
The main theme is broad U.S. dollar strength, supported by elevated Treasury yields and changing Federal Reserve rate expectations.
2. Which major pair has the clearest bearish structure?
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are all trading under important resistance zones, although each pair has different fundamental drivers and support levels.
3. Why is USDJPY more complicated than other major pairs?
USDJPY is influenced by both U.S. rate expectations and Japanese policy or intervention risk, so sudden reversals are possible even when the broader dollar trend is strong.
4. What should traders watch before entering a major Forex trade?
Watch the relevant support and resistance level, DXY direction, Treasury yields, scheduled economic data, volatility and position size before taking a trade.
